A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
